Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 11.018927 13.495497 16.262495 19.563310 23.373062 27.611427 32.661569
2026-02-08 7.253417 10.323179 14.150334 19.186237 25.545101 33.211546 43.047935
2026-02-15 5.100276 8.239867 12.521691 18.603891 26.816992 37.307510 51.476772
2026-02-22 4.038355 7.264277 12.002270 19.154185 29.322535 42.882197 61.894804
2026-03-01 3.077624 6.167853 11.048966 18.854310 30.491773 46.624325 70.003982
2026-03-08 2.438148 5.410662 10.431075 18.883082 32.016264 50.833565 78.868345
2026-03-15 1.817076 4.512388 9.404819 18.095735 32.180380 53.037547 84.967527
2026-03-22 1.530657 4.169189 9.243649 18.643489 34.373930 58.251617 95.548334
2026-03-29 1.265864 3.794941 8.952768 18.911422 36.104714 62.828165 105.372260
2026-04-05 1.060544 3.492171 8.737489 19.264832 37.967091 67.665382 115.758508
2026-04-12 0.893833 3.230719 8.554013 19.637824 39.861334 72.615951 126.491030
2026-04-19 0.700314 2.832506 8.011216 19.259082 40.409919 75.429322 134.028963
2026-04-26 0.569957 2.577605 7.765539 19.490915 42.163580 80.465985 145.565222
2026-05-03 0.430488 2.232746 7.246331 19.112626 42.798057 83.726394 154.504456
2026-05-10 0.314446 1.899902 6.674213 18.531895 42.982126 86.207465 162.263369
2026-05-17 0.263347 1.783172 6.629319 19.080497 45.338387 92.489522 176.432494
2026-05-24 0.197028 1.557392 6.233485 18.781536 46.005366 95.852559 185.894979
2026-05-31 0.153103 1.401223 5.995625 18.810220 47.310623 100.381284 197.449236
2026-06-07 0.104066 1.167462 5.454747 18.025288 46.877631 101.750937 203.685709
2026-06-14 0.086566 1.105747 5.449671 18.571360 49.250683 108.319108 219.033188
2026-06-21 0.068572 1.020564 5.342557 18.838473 51.041231 113.878908 232.807478
2026-06-28 0.054889 0.950939 5.271924 19.190806 53.033927 119.889496 247.549516
2026-07-05 0.043905 0.888719 5.211906 19.562667 55.088904 126.092191 262.810871